Federal Reserve live coverage: Fed expected to hold rates steady, offer updated outlook amid Iran war

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged amid rising oil prices due to the conflict in Iran, which complicates the inflation and economic growth outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders anticipate that the Fed will not cut rates until October or December, with rates expected to remain in the 3.5%-3.75% range [2]. - The Fed's upcoming policy decision will coincide with the release of its first Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2026, detailing forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and interest rates [2][6]. Group 2: Impact of Oil Prices - The ongoing war in Iran has led to oil prices hovering around $100 per barrel, which is likely to keep interest rates on hold and may deepen divisions among Fed officials regarding the inflation outlook [3][4]. - The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the conflict raises questions about the Fed's policy path for the remainder of the year [4][5]. Group 3: Internal Fed Dynamics - The recent focus within the Fed has shifted from the distance of rates from neutral to the implications of the Iran conflict and sustained high oil prices [5]. - Officials will release a quarterly "dot plot" indicating individual members' expectations for interest rate cuts, although economists are placing less emphasis on these projections due to the prevailing uncertainty [6].