WaFd Shares Dip 7.8% in 3 Months: How to Play the Stock Now?

Core Insights - WaFd, Inc. (WAFD) shares have declined 7.8% over the past three months, underperforming the industry decline of 9.9% and the S&P 500 Index drop of 2% [1][2] - The decline in investor interest is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, leading to a risk-off environment [3] - Despite the recent share price drop, there are potential buying opportunities based on the company's fundamentals [3] Performance Overview - WaFd's loan portfolio has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from 2022 to 2025, although recent strategic exits from single-family mortgage lending have led to a decline in loan balances [4] - The company's revenues have also experienced a CAGR of 3.2% over the last three fiscal years [4] - WaFd's net interest margin (NIM) expanded by 31 basis points to 2.70% in Q1 of fiscal 2026, rebounding from previous contractions due to elevated funding costs [5] - A lower interest rate environment and a focus on increasing non-interest-bearing deposits are expected to support further NIM expansion [6] Revenue Streams - WaFd is actively expanding its fee-based operations, with non-interest income growing at a CAGR of 2.4% and a 29% increase to $20.3 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026 [9] - The company has a stable liquidity position with total borrowings of $2.44 billion and cash and cash equivalents of $734.9 million as of December 31, 2025 [10] - WaFd has consistently rewarded shareholders with dividends, maintaining a payout ratio of 38% and a dividend yield of 3.49% [11] Challenges - Operating expenses have seen a CAGR of 6% from 2022 to 2025, driven by higher compensation and technology costs, which may continue to pressure profitability [14] - The company's net charge-offs rose sharply to $11.8 million in fiscal 2025 from $1.4 million the previous year, indicating deteriorating asset quality [15] - WaFd's significant reliance on commercial loans, which accounted for 57.6% of total net loans as of December 31, 2025, adds to its risk exposure [18] Valuation and Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 earnings indicates growth of 13.6% and 4.1%, respectively [19] - WaFd's forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 9.83X, higher than the industry average of 9.27X, suggesting the stock may be expensive [20] - The company is trading at a discount to Bank of Hawaii Corporation (BOH) but at a premium to Columbia Banking System, Inc. (COLB) [23] - Overall, steady loan growth, improving NIM, and rising non-interest income are expected to support WaFd's performance, despite challenges from rising expenses and asset quality concerns [24][25]