Q4 2025’s restaurant winners and loses

Core Insights - McDonald's experienced strong sales growth in Q4 2025, achieving 6.8% same-store sales growth, largely due to price cuts on core menu items and the revival of the Extra Value Meal category [2][6] - The fast casual segment faced challenges, with brands like Cava and Chipotle reporting same-store sales declines, while QSR brands like McDonald's, Taco Bell, and Domino's showed strong performance [3][6] - Sweetgreen had a particularly poor performance, with an 11.5% decline in same-store sales in Q4, leading to significant financial losses and operational changes [20][23] QSR Performance - McDonald's sales growth was driven by strategic pricing and marketing initiatives, including the return of the Monopoly promotion and new menu items [7] - Domino's reported a 3.7% increase in same-store sales in Q4 2025, positioning itself for potential market share doubling [12] - Taco Bell achieved consecutive quarters of sales growth at or above 7%, leveraging value offerings and innovative menu items [15][17] Casual Dining Insights - Casual dining brands had mixed results, with First Watch showing sales and unit count increases, while Applebee's and IHOP experienced slight declines [4] - Texas Roadhouse posted solid results, while Chili's saw moderated but robust same-store sales growth [4] Underperformers - Sweetgreen's significant decline in sales was attributed to price sensitivity and operational challenges, leading to a loss of $49.7 million in Q4 [20][22] - Pizza Hut's same-store sales dropped by 3% in Q4, prompting Yum Brands to close about 250 underperforming locations [25][26] - Wendy's faced an 11.3% decline in same-store sales, struggling with intense competition and ineffective marketing strategies [27][29] - Papa John's reported a 5% drop in same-store sales, with plans to close up to 300 stores to improve overall performance [30][31]