Why the real ‘black swan' of the Iran war is the lack of them in stocks, bonds or almost anything but oil

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lack of significant market reactions in stocks and bonds to the ongoing war in Iran, contrasting this with the volatility observed in the oil market, suggesting that the real 'black swan' event is the absence of expected market disruptions in equities and fixed income [1]. Group 1 - The S&P 500 peaked three trading days before the onset of hostilities in Iran, indicating a delayed market response to geopolitical events [2]. - The S&P 500 did not break out of a three-month trading range until a week after the conflict began, highlighting a lack of immediate volatility in the stock market [2].