智通财经网·2026-03-19 03:33Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report indicates that AIA Group (01299) is expected to meet performance expectations for 2025, with share buybacks providing a positive surprise, maintaining a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 103 [1] Financial Performance - The new business value for 2025 is projected to grow by 17% and 15% to USD 5.516 billion, slightly below market expectations of 18% growth, driven by a 10% increase in annualized new premiums and a 3.4 percentage point rise in profit margins [1] - The intrinsic value is expected to expand by 11% to USD 76.8 billion, with per share intrinsic value increasing by 14% to USD 7.31 [1] - Free surplus net generation is anticipated to grow by 11% to USD 4.5 billion [1] Market Segmentation - New business value growth is primarily driven by markets in Hong Kong, Thailand, and Singapore, with respective growth rates of 28%, 22%, and 17%, while mainland China and other markets are expected to grow by 2% and 4% [1] Shareholder Returns - A total dividend of USD 2.6 billion will be distributed, alongside a new share buyback program of USD 1.7 billion, significantly exceeding the expected USD 1.3 billion [1] - The final dividend has been increased by 10% to HKD 1.44 per share, with the total dividend for 2025 also raised by 10% to HKD 1.93 per share, slightly above the market expectation of 9% growth [1] Operational Profit - Operating profit per share is projected to grow by 13% and 10% year-on-year for 2025 and the second half of 2025, respectively, slightly higher than the market expectation of 12% growth for 2025 [1]