中信证券明明：预计2026年或将保持4.9%左右的增速

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 economic growth in China is projected to maintain around 4.9%, supported by moderate fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The chief economist of CITIC Securities, Mingming, predicts a GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% for 2026 [1][4]. - The economic growth may exhibit a "V" shape due to base factors and policy timing [1][4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Policy Support - Fiscal spending is expected to continue moderate expansion, which will enhance local government financial capabilities [1][4]. - Ongoing policy support is anticipated to sustain and boost economic performance in 2026 [1][4]. Group 3: Inflation and Nominal GDP - With inflation expected to continue rising, nominal GDP is likely to receive a boost [1][4]. - The GDP deflator index is projected to return to positive territory in 2026 [1][4].