中信证券，最新发声！

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities hosted the 2026 Spring Capital Market Forum, discussing global macro trends and investment strategies in light of recent geopolitical events and domestic policies [1] Investment Strategy - The Middle East conflict is seen as a catalyst for style switching in investment strategies, with low valuations and pricing power being crucial factors in the current market [3] - The focus is on re-evaluating pricing power in China's advantageous manufacturing sector, with recommendations to invest in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, and new energy [3][4] Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities' Chief Economist Mingming forecasts a continued recovery for China's economy in 2026, with an expected real GDP growth rate of around 4.9% and a "V-shaped" growth pattern [6] - Fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with a deficit rate of 4% and an increase in special bonds aimed at project construction [6] - Monetary policy may allow for 1-2 interest rate cuts and one reserve requirement ratio reduction throughout the year [5][6] Global Economic Context - The global economic landscape is anticipated to undergo rebalancing, with the U.S. facing structural issues that may lead to a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [6] - In the commodities sector, the gold-to-oil and gold-to-copper ratios are at historical highs, indicating a potential shift in the attractiveness of physical assets [7] Policy and Reform - The current macro and policy environment is characterized by "reform breakthroughs and industrial upgrades," with a focus on stabilizing economic demand and enhancing investment through policy financial tools [9] - Ongoing reforms aim to reduce income disparity and expand the middle-income group, while also optimizing traditional industries and fostering new and future industries [9]