MARA Holdings Drops 6%, Riot Platforms Falls 5%: Two Bitcoin Miners Caught Between Energy Costs and an AI Pivot

Core Viewpoint - MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms, two Bitcoin miners, are facing significant challenges due to rising energy costs and the need to demonstrate the viability of their AI pivots amidst Bitcoin price volatility [5][3]. Group 1: MARA Holdings - MARA Holdings reported an increase in purchased energy cost per Bitcoin from $32,433 to $39,235, reflecting a 21% rise [2][9]. - The company plans to acquire a 64% stake in Exaion and develop West Texas data center campuses, aiming for 50% of revenue to come from international operations by 2028 [2][10][11]. - Over the past year, MARA's stock has decreased by 31%, and it has lost 80% of its value over five years, indicating a volatile market sentiment [8]. Group 2: Riot Platforms - Riot Platforms achieved record annual revenue of $647.4 million for fiscal year 2025, a year-over-year increase of over 70%, but adjusted EBITDA fell dramatically from $463.19 million to $12.96 million [12]. - The company has a 10-year data center lease with AMD that became operational in January 2026, which is expected to generate revenue [13]. - Riot holds 3,977 Bitcoin as collateral, which limits its financial flexibility, especially as the global hashrate increased by 52% year-over-year, raising mining costs [14]. Group 3: Industry Context - Geopolitical tensions have driven WTI crude oil prices to $97 per barrel, significantly impacting energy-intensive operations like Bitcoin mining [3][15]. - Both companies are under pressure to prove their AI strategies can generate revenue quickly enough to offset rising mining costs and Bitcoin price volatility [5][17]. - The probability of Bitcoin reaching a high price threshold by year-end is approximately 40.5%, while the likelihood of a significant price dip is around 70.5%, indicating a challenging market environment [16].