Oil Prices Could Hit $150 If War Continues Through End of March

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices could potentially rise to $150 per barrel or more if the conflict in the Middle East continues until the end of March, driven by intensified attacks on energy infrastructure by Iran [1]. Group 1: Supply Shock and Market Reaction - The ongoing conflict represents a significant supply shock affecting not only oil but also other energy resources globally [2]. - Brent oil prices surged by 6% to over $114 per barrel due to Iranian attacks on Middle Eastern oil infrastructure, with the Strait of Hormuz currently closed to all vessels except Iranian cargoes [2]. - Analysts have been predicting oil prices could reach $200 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the region [5]. Group 2: Impact of Iranian Attacks - Iran's recent strike on the South Pars gas field has led to retaliatory attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, causing "extensive damage" to Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial complex, the largest liquefied natural gas facility in the world [3]. - The Samref refinery in Saudi Arabia has also been targeted, although the impact was reported to be minor [4]. - The Iranian retaliation raises concerns about prolonged disruptions to energy supplies in the Persian Gulf [4]. Group 3: OPEC+ Stability - Despite the ongoing conflict, the OPEC+ alliance is expected to remain intact, similar to its resilience during previous conflicts among its members [2].