Sugar Surges Amid Soaring Gasoline Prices and Supply Disruptions

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have reached 5-month highs, with May NY world sugar 11 up by 3.38% and May London ICE white sugar 5 up by 2.67% [1] - The increase in sugar prices is attributed to soaring gasoline prices, which have reached a 3.5-year high, potentially leading sugar mills to prioritize ethanol production over sugar [1] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted approximately 6% of the world's sugar trade, impacting refined sugar output [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Projections - Analysts predict a global sugar surplus of 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2026/27 crop year, following an 8.3 MMT surplus in 2025/26 [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.22 MMT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] Group 4: Regional Production Insights - Brazil's sugar production in the Center-South fell by 36% year-on-year in the second half of January, although cumulative output for 2025-26 through January rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.24 MMT [5] - India's sugar output from October 1 to March 15 for 2025-26 increased by 10.5% year-on-year to 26.2 MMT, with projections for total production set at 29.3 MMT, a 12% increase year-on-year [6]