智通财经网·2026-03-22 11:48Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts create significant uncertainty regarding their duration and evolution, leading to persistent disturbances in global risk assets, with expectations of high volatility in global equity markets. However, the A-share market is likely to experience limited downside, with a probable oscillation and structural rotation to absorb external pressures [1]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - During the week of March 16-20, 2026, the A-share market experienced a volatile adjustment, with the overall A-index declining by 4.13%. Only the ChiNext index saw an increase of 1.26%, while the North Star 50 and CSI 1000 indices fell by over 5%, and other indices dropped by more than 2% [2]. - In terms of market style, large-cap stocks outperformed, while all five major style indices retreated, with the cyclical style dropping over 7% and stability, growth, and consumer styles declining by more than 2% [2]. - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with only the communication and banking sectors rising, while non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel experienced the largest drops [2]. Group 2: Fund Flows - The A-share market's trading activity slightly cooled, with an average daily turnover of 22,111 billion yuan, down by 2,875.9 billion yuan from the previous week [3]. - The margin financing balance stood at 26,501.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.89 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - A total of 30 new equity funds were established, with an issuance volume of 21.388 billion units, an increase of 1.564 billion units from the previous week [3]. - From March 12 to 18, global funds saw a net outflow of 12.78 million USD, improving from a previous outflow of 36.15 million USD, while overseas funds had a net outflow of 5.32 million USD, down from 10.35 million USD [3]. Group 3: Valuation Changes - The PE (TTM) valuation of the overall A-index decreased by 3.16% to 22.59 times, placing it at the 91.20 percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation fell by 3.39% to 1.86 times, at the 51.45 percentile since 2010 [4]. - The bond-equity spread for the overall A-share market is 2.5959%, situated near the three-year rolling average (3.316%) minus 1.39 standard deviations, at the 45.88 percentile since 2010 [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict is expected to drive strong demand for energy and alternatives, with a focus on sectors such as coal chemical, coal, shipping ports, and oil and gas. The recent significant pullback in non-ferrous metals warrants attention for valuation recovery and cost-effectiveness [6]. - The market is shifting towards defensive assets, with a focus on financials, public utilities, and transportation [6]. - The technology innovation sector is highlighted, particularly in areas such as power equipment, new energy, energy storage, storage, semiconductors, computing power, and communication devices. Additionally, the consumer sector is noted for its historically low valuations, with certain sub-sectors like agriculture, food and beverage, and home appliances showing potential for recovery [6].