Forget Rate Cuts: What if the Fed Needs to Hike Rates in 2026?

The Iran conflict has thrown both the U.S. economic outlook and Fed policy plans out the window. While geopolitical events tend to be short term in nature and conditions often return to the way they were after tensions settle, this conflict is looking more and more like it will be a problem for a while. It's also impacting what the Fed might be able to do this year. For months, the Fed Funds futures market has been pricing in rate cuts this year. Even with inflation remaining stubbornly above target and ...