Gold Eyes Worst Month Against Oil Since 1973; Mining Stocks Slump Most Since 2008

Core Insights - A significant shift in commodity markets is occurring due to the ongoing Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, reminiscent of the Arab oil embargo [1] - Gold prices are experiencing their worst monthly performance against Brent crude since December 1973, with a notable decline in the gold-to-oil ratio [2][4] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have dropped 13% month-to-date, reaching $4,580 per ounce, marking the worst monthly decline since October 2008 [2] - The gold-to-Brent ratio has fallen 43% month-to-date, indicating that an ounce of gold can now buy approximately 40 barrels of crude [3] Geopolitical Impact on Gold - Contrary to traditional market expectations, gold is not rising amid geopolitical tensions; instead, it is influenced by interest rates, which are currently a concern due to rising oil prices [6] - The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is reigniting inflation fears, leading to a shift in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [7] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - Prior to the conflict, traders anticipated two Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026, but this expectation has changed dramatically [7] - Currently, there is a 17% chance of a Fed rate hike this year, which is more than double the odds before the Iran war began [8]