智通财经网·2026-03-23 08:04Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has updated the risk-return profile of AIA Group (01299) and adjusted its model forecasts based on the group's performance for the fiscal year 2025, resulting in a slight downward adjustment of key indicators by 1 to 2 percentage points due to the impact of last year's performance and a $1.7 billion share buyback [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Despite a weak performance in the Thai market in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the new business value (VNB) for AIA is expected to maintain a mid-single-digit growth of approximately 14.7%, 14.9%, and 14.3% for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, with China being the main driver [1] - Morgan Stanley has lowered its forecast for AIA's after-tax operating profit for the next two years by 2.1% and 2.4%, yet the growth rates remain robust at 12% and 12.1% respectively [1] - The embedded value has been reduced by 4% and 4.3%, but the per-share calculations still show healthy growth of 13% and 12.5% [1] Group 2: Margins and Growth - The contract service margin balance has been adjusted down by no more than 1 percentage point, but it is still expected to maintain a healthy growth rate of 11% to 12% over the next two years [1] - Morgan Stanley believes that AIA's growth remains sustainable, supported by an increasing balance sheet, with private credit risk exposure being relatively small at about 2% of non-participating and profit assets [1] - The $1.7 billion share buyback is expected to effectively support the stock price performance [1]