【中国银河固收】转债周报 | 短期尚未企稳，待中期转机

Core Viewpoint - The equity market is under pressure due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, tightening global liquidity expectations, and high oil prices, leading to a decline in risk appetite for equity assets [1][18] Weekly Review of Convertible Bond Market - During the week of March 16-20, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.38% to 3957.1 points, while the China Convertible Bond Index dropped 3.15% to 492.6 points [1][5] - Major indices experienced more declines than gains, with only the ChiNext Index rising by 1.3% [1][5] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market decreased, with the total daily trading volume for the entire A-share market falling by 11.5% to 2.21 trillion yuan [10][11] Market Outlook - The current adjustment in the convertible bond market may continue for another 20-50 days, with a potential decline of 10%-20% expected [2][19] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a commitment to maintaining stability in financial markets, which may provide liquidity support to the equity market [2][19] - The focus is shifting towards fundamental pricing as the market approaches the annual report disclosure period, with physical assets being favored over virtual assets [3][25] Sector Performance - The majority of sectors saw declines, with only the telecommunications and banking sectors showing positive performance [1][7] - Convertible bonds across all sectors fell, with financial convertible bonds showing relative resilience [1][7] Trading Activity - The number of convertible bonds subject to forced redemption decreased, with four bonds totaling 1.061 billion yuan announced for forced redemption, down by 2.852 billion yuan from the previous week [15][26] - The average price of convertible bonds fell by 5.69 yuan to 101.92 yuan, indicating a continued decline in valuation [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain strict control over positions and focus on low-priced convertible bonds for defensive strategies [3][25] - There may be opportunities for rebound in strong stocks during market fluctuations, with a cautious approach recommended for speculative participation [3][25]