智通财经网·2026-03-24 05:58Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that China Tower's Q4 performance was mixed, with revenue and net profit meeting expectations, but EBITDA falling short due to increased maintenance costs from upgrading old towers [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit for China Tower in Q4 were in line with expectations, while EBITDA was below expectations due to rising maintenance expenses [1] - The company has fully depreciated tower assets acquired from telecom operators since 2015, leading to significant depreciation savings [1] - Management expects EBITDA to decline this year, stabilizing in 2027, primarily due to increased maintenance costs for upgrading old towers, estimated to rise by RMB 4 billion to 5 billion [1] Group 2: Valuation and Forecasts - UBS has changed its valuation method from target dividend yield to dividend discount model, adjusting the target price from HKD 13.5 to HKD 11.6, corresponding to a forecasted dividend yield of 6% for 2026 [1] - The company suggests a payout ratio of 77% of distributable net profit for this year, aligning with UBS's expectations [2] - UBS has revised its revenue and EBITDA forecasts for China Tower down by 1% to 6% for the next two years, reflecting weak capital expenditure from telecom operators and rising maintenance costs [2] Group 3: Future Projections - UBS forecasts net profit growth for China Tower of 31%, 5%, and 0% for 2026 to 2028, with per-share dividends expected to grow by 31%, 7%, and 9% respectively [2] - The dividend is projected to account for approximately 55% to 70% of free cash flow, sufficient to cover dividend distributions [2]