Why Citi still sees $150 oil

Oil Market Outlook - Citi strategists predict that oil prices will remain elevated, with Brent crude expected to reach "at least" $120 per barrel in the coming month, and a "bull case" scenario suggesting prices could hit $150 per barrel [1][2] - The ongoing conflict in Iran and potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are contributing to a "war premium" in oil prices, which have surged from around $72 per barrel to a peak of $119 per barrel [4][5] Consumer Impact - The rise in oil prices has led to increased consumer costs, with the average price of gas nearing $4 per gallon and significant increases in diesel prices affecting trucking operations [5][6] - Goldman Sachs warns that consumers should prepare for an inflation surge due to higher oil prices impacting supply chains, which could have recessionary effects in the short term [6] Geopolitical Factors - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz poses a risk to 20% of global oil supply, and the potential for military action or continued diplomatic efforts may not resolve the disruptions [2][3] - President Trump's ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz is viewed as a strategic move that may not escalate tensions as much as perceived, given Iran's extensive power infrastructure [3]