Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic won't return to normal for months, Kalshi bettors predict

Ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026.Kalshi defines a return to normal as the seven-day moving average of Hormuz transit calls topping 60, as tracked by IMF PortWatch. Roughly $100,000 has been wagered in the market.Odds that tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will "return to normal" before April 15 are below 25% on Kalshi. By June 1, however, odds shorten to more than 67%, and by July 1 to 76%.Prediction market bettors aren't confident tha ...