Stocks Fall as Iran War Drags On

Market Overview - The markets are reacting to geopolitical developments in the Iran war, with stocks initially rallying after President Trump announced a five-day postponement of strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure [1] - Stocks are currently moving lower as the conflict continues, with the S&P 500 Index down -0.16% and the Nasdaq 100 Index down -0.50% [5] Economic Indicators - US Q4 nonfarm productivity remained unchanged at +1.8%, while unit labor costs were revised upward to +4.4% from +2.8%, exceeding expectations of +3.6% [2] - The March S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.8 to 52.4, surpassing expectations of a decline to 51.5 [2] - The March Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rose +10 to a 13-month high of 0, better than expectations of -8 [2] Oil Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices remain elevated, with WTI crude up more than +4% today, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East [4][15] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the Iran conflict is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, with an expected cut of 8 million barrels per day this month [6] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has significantly impacted oil and gas flows, with over 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East severely damaged [6] Stock Movements - Energy producers are experiencing gains, with companies like Marathon Petroleum and APA Corp up more than +5% [15] - Software companies are underperforming, with Atlassian down more than -6% and Salesforce down more than -4% [12] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are also declining, with Coinbase Global down more than -8% [13] European Market Insights - European government bond yields are rising, with the 10-year German bund yield up +1.8 bp to 3.023% [9] - The Eurozone March S&P manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.6 to 51.4, indicating stronger-than-expected expansion [10]