摩根大通：维持快手-W(01024)“增持”评级，4Q25业绩稳健超预期，可灵与广告业务成亮点

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024) with a target price of HKD 89, citing strong performance in Q4 2025, with revenue slightly exceeding market expectations and advertising along with Keling AI business as key highlights [1][2] Financial Performance - Kuaishou achieved revenue of CNY 39.568 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12%, which is approximately 2% higher than market consensus [1] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was CNY 5.463 billion, up 16% year-on-year [1] - Online marketing services revenue reached CNY 23.618 billion, growing 15% year-on-year, while other services revenue was CNY 6.295 billion, increasing by 28% [1] Advertising and AI Business - The advertising business showed a notable increase, with growth accelerating from 14% in Q3 2025 to 15% in Q4 2025, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in e-commerce advertising demand [1] - AI's contribution to the core business has started to translate into quantifiable revenue, adding approximately 5% growth to Kuaishou's domestic online marketing services revenue in Q4 [1] Keling Commercialization - Keling's revenue grew by 13% quarter-on-quarter to CNY 340 million in Q4 2025, with December's monthly revenue reaching USD 20 million, indicating sustained demand for AI video generation products [2] - Keling is expected to become a significant incremental value in Kuaishou's valuation framework [2] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - Kuaishou has room for further monetization efficiency improvements in advertising and e-commerce, with healthy profit growth prospects for its core business [2] - The company announced a final dividend of HKD 3 billion, equating to HKD 0.69 per share, alongside a special dividend, resulting in an approximate dividend yield of 2.2% [2] Valuation - Kuaishou's current valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of about 9 times for 2026, which is considered attractive and does not fully reflect the potential value of the Keling AI business [2]