中信证券：2026年油运企业利润有望创新高

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a partial recovery in the traffic capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, with implications for oil transportation and pricing dynamics in the industry [1]. Group 1: Traffic and Capacity - From March 20 to 24, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz was 2/1/5/7/3, compared to 127 vessels on February 27 [1]. - In the last three days, two product oil tankers passed through the strait, while some crude oil tankers turned off their AIS signals, leading to missing positioning data [1]. - There are initial signals of "partial recovery" in the traffic capacity of the strait [1]. Group 2: Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics - Based on previous reports, the rerouted crude oil volume through alternative ports like Fujairah and Oman is estimated to be between 6 to 7 million barrels per day [1]. - If traffic volume recovers to 40% of pre-conflict levels, the actual demand gap is expected to narrow to within 10%, considering demand replacement from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Mexico [1]. Group 3: Pricing and Profit Outlook - The marginal changes in the traffic capacity of the Strait of Hormuz are noteworthy, as short-term adjustments in supply chain methods may lead to longer shipping distances [1]. - The release of U.S. strategic reserves is anticipated to drive up the TD22 (Gulf of Mexico to China) freight rates [1]. - A partial recovery in the strait's traffic capacity could catalyze replenishment demand, potentially leading to record-high profits for oil transportation companies by 2026 [1].