Oil prices could hit $200 per barrel if the war in Iran continues into summer

Oil Price Projections - Macquarie Group strategists predict oil prices could reach $200 per barrel if the war in Iran continues through June, necessitating a significant reduction in global oil demand [1][3] - Current Brent futures are trading above $103 per barrel, with WTI crude above $97 per barrel, reflecting a 3% gain despite geopolitical tensions [2] - The probability of reaching $200 per barrel is estimated at 40%, with a more likely scenario being a resolution by early April, leading to moderated oil prices [3] Economic Impact - United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby indicated that elevated jet fuel costs could result in an additional $11 billion in annual fuel expenses if oil prices remain high [4] - Saudi Arabian energy leaders have forecasted oil prices could hit $180 per barrel if the conflict extends into late April, aligning with Macquarie's outlook [3] Geopolitical Context - Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of the world's oil and gas, has largely ceased due to the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran [5]