This ‘single greatest’ stock-market predictor has never been more bearish

When retail buyers are extremely bullish, experienced investors take notice. - Getty Images/iStockphoto The stock-market-timing indicator with the best long-term predictive record has just risen to its highest — and most bearish — level ever. I’m referring to the average U.S. household’s allocation to U.S. stocks, an indicator described in December 2013 by the anonymous author of the “Philosophical Economics” blog. It was dubbed, with much justification, the “Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Ret ...