Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 27, 2026

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.44% on March 27, 2026, marking the highest level since July 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.88% and the 30-year yield at 4.98% [1] Treasury Yields Overview - A long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical trends, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo leading to stagflation [3] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [3][4] Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [5][7] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [6] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, including mortgage rates, which have recently declined despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [8] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.38%, the highest since September [9]