How a war in the Middle East is hiking your mortgage rate in America

Core Insights - The ongoing war in the Middle East has significantly increased mortgage rates in the U.S., exacerbating an already challenging housing market [1][3] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 6.43%, marking a 30 basis point increase from the previous month and the highest level since October 2025 [2] - Elevated oil prices due to the conflict are contributing to the rise in mortgage rates, as they keep Treasury yields high, which in turn affects mortgage rates [3] Housing Market Conditions - The U.S. housing market was already under strain from a severe housing shortage and job market concerns prior to the war [4] - Zillow's CEO indicated that no short-term relief is expected for homebuyers, suggesting prolonged difficulties in the housing market [4] - The increase in mortgage rates has also negatively impacted refinance demand, with refinance applications dropping by 15% from the previous week [4] Economic Implications - The war's impact extends beyond mortgage rates, affecting energy and commodity prices, which could lead to increased inflation [5] - Gas prices have surged to a national average of just under $4 per gallon, reflecting the broader economic strain [5] - Some economists are warning of potential stagflation as a result of these economic pressures [5]