Carrier Global (CARR) Slid on Lowering Guidance

Core Insights - Bristol Gate Capital Partners emphasizes investing in companies with strong free cash flows, disciplined capital allocation, and high dividend growth for superior risk-adjusted returns [1] - The market has shifted towards AI leaders since late 2022, leading to underperformance for the fund due to narrow market breadth [1] - Recent market breadth expansion, along with advancements in the firm's Data Science team's Distant Future Model, presents strong investment opportunities [1] Company Overview: Carrier Global Corporation - Carrier Global Corporation operates in the HVAC and Refrigeration segments, focusing on intelligent climate and energy solutions [2] - As of March 27, 2026, Carrier's share price was $54.25, with a one-month return of -15.02% and a 52-week loss of 14.43% [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $45.345 billion [2] Performance Analysis - In Q4 2025, Carrier Global was a significant detractor in the Materials and Consumer Discretionary sectors, primarily due to lowered 2025 guidance and weak residential sales volumes in the Americas [3] - The company reported Q4 2025 sales of $4.8 billion, adjusted operating profit of $455 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.34 [4] - Despite potential as an investment, certain AI stocks are viewed as having greater upside potential and less downside risk [4] Hedge Fund Interest - Carrier Global was held by 59 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q4 2025, an increase from 48 in the previous quarter [4] Market Sentiment - Wells Fargo and JPMorgan have cut price targets for Carrier following weak Q3 results [5]