This is what really causes recessions, a former top Trump White House economist says

Economic Resilience and Recession Forecasting - The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience, defying predictions of an impending downturn after nearly six years of expansion post-Covid [2][3] - Tyler Goodspeed, a former top White House economist, argues that recessions are fundamentally unforecastable due to their reliance on unpredictable shocks [3][6] Energy Sector's Impact on Economic Shocks - Energy has historically been a significant sector that generates shocks affecting the broader economy, as it is a critical input for many other sectors [8][11] - High energy prices were a substantial factor in the depth of the 2008 financial crisis, with Brent crude prices nearing $150 per barrel in June 2008, leading to increased household energy costs [12][13] Historical Context of Recessions - Historical evidence suggests that recessions have consistent durations and depths, regardless of government intervention, indicating that state actions may not effectively end recessions [14][16] - The tendency to believe that economic expansions can be sustained indefinitely is challenged by the reality that recessions will continue to occur as part of economic cycles [16][17]