VST Stock: Valuation and Other Factors That Could Move Shares

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. (VST) has shown strong performance over the past year, despite a recent pullback, with future performance dependent on earnings visibility and contracted base offsetting retail normalization and growth timelines [1] Valuation and Multiples - VST trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 15.92X, which is below the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry average of 16.27X and the S&P 500 average of 19.99X [2][8] - Over the past five years, VST's forward earnings multiple has fluctuated between 5.91X and 71.25X, with a median of 12.27X, indicating current pricing is closer to a mid-cycle range [3] - Competitors like NextEra Energy, Dominion Energy, and The Southern Company trade at higher multiples of 22.52X, 16.93X, and 20.76X respectively, suggesting VST is undervalued compared to its peers [4] Price Target and Guidance - The price target for VST is set at $155, based on a forward earnings multiple of 16.72X, indicating expectations for performance aligned with the broader market [5] - For 2026, VST's guidance includes an Adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion, with growth drivers extending into the later part of the decade [9][10] Revenue Visibility - Recent revenue results fell short of expectations; however, the outlook is improving due to increased contracted and hedged positions, with nearly all of 2026 production hedged and most of 2027 covered [10]