Sugar Prices Erase Early Gains as the Dollar Rallies

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently experienced volatility, with a decline attributed to a rally in the dollar index, leading to long liquidation in sugar futures [1] - Increased sugar production in Brazil is contributing to downward pressure on sugar prices, as mills are prioritizing sugar output over ethanol [2] - Supply disruptions due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are providing some support to sugar prices, affecting approximately 6% of the global sugar trade [4] Production and Supply Dynamics - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise by 0.7% year-on-year to 40.25 million metric tons (MMT), with a higher percentage of cane being crushed for sugar [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar production increase of 3.0% year-on-year to 181.3 million MMT in 2025-26, driven by higher production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [6] Market Trends and Price Movements - Sugar prices initially rose, reaching a 5.5-month high in New York and a 6-month high in London, influenced by a more than 3% increase in crude oil prices, which may encourage more ethanol production [3] - Earlier this month, sugar prices fell to a 5.5-year low due to concerns over a persistent global sugar surplus, with various analysts projecting surpluses for the upcoming crop years [5]