Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the March 18-19 FOMC meeting

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 18-19, 2025, resulted in economic projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2025 to 2027, reflecting participants' assessments of appropriate monetary policy [1][4][5] Economic Projections - Projections for real GDP growth indicate a range of outcomes, with the median expected to change from the previous year [5][44] - The unemployment rate is projected to average in the fourth quarter of each indicated year, with specific percentage changes noted [5][44] - Inflation measures, including PCE inflation and core PCE inflation, are projected as percentage changes from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the indicated year [5][44] Monetary Policy Assessment - Each participant's assessment of appropriate monetary policy includes a path for the federal funds rate, with projections for the target range or level at the end of each specified calendar year [5][10][17] - The longer-run projections represent the expected convergence of each variable under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further economic shocks [5][44] Uncertainty and Risks - Participants provided assessments of uncertainty and risks surrounding their projections, indicating whether they perceive the risks as balanced, weighted to the upside, or downside [20][24][27] - Historical forecast errors inform the confidence intervals around projections, suggesting a 70% probability that actual outcomes will fall within specified ranges [20][46] Data Visualization - Figures illustrate the medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections for GDP growth, unemployment rate, and inflation from 2025 to 2027 [8][19][26] - The distribution of participants' projections for various economic indicators is visually represented, highlighting the range of views across FOMC members [12][17][25]