大摩闭门会议-20250630

Group 1 - The upcoming zzj meeting in late July is expected to maintain a moderate observational tone without significant policy adjustments or stimulus measures due to the achieved GDP growth target of 5.2% in the first half of the year, slightly above the government's 5% target [1][10][22] - The economic growth in the first half was driven by factors such as export surges and proactive fiscal policies, which are expected to weaken in the second half, leading to potential GDP growth below 4.5% [1][10][28] - The combination of the RMB stablecoin and rare earth exports could enhance China's financial autonomy and reduce reliance on the USD-dominated payment systems, with a focus on digital and controllable trade settlements [2][19][22] Group 2 - The U.S. financial market continues to show resilience and is reaching new highs despite long-term concerns about the de-dollarization process, supported by expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming years [2][14][30] - The geopolitical tensions and the current oil price decline of 20% year-on-year are not expected to adversely affect the U.S. economy, as historical data suggests that geopolitical events typically do not lead to systemic downturns unless oil prices rise significantly [2][14][30] - The ongoing efforts by overseas countries to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths are unlikely to yield significant results in the short term, as new projects are smaller in scale compared to Chinese production capabilities [4][26] Group 3 - China's export outlook is under pressure, with expectations of nominal export growth approaching zero and potential declines in the fourth quarter due to high base effects and trade uncertainties [5][25][28] - Fiscal policy support in the first half of the year, including debt swaps and transfer payments to local governments, is expected to diminish in the second half, leading to increased fiscal pressure and a potential GDP decline [7][28][26] - The Hong Kong real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with property prices potentially having bottomed out and rental markets improving, driven by factors such as reduced land supply and population growth [8][11][12]