Economic Outlook Remarks by Jerome H. Powell_20250924

Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy has shown resilience despite substantial changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, regulatory, and geopolitical policies, with their long-term implications still emerging [5] - Recent data indicates a moderation in economic growth, with GDP rising at approximately 1.5% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% growth last year, primarily due to a slowdown in consumer spending [6][7] - The unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% in August, with payroll job gains slowing sharply to an average of 29,000 per month over the past three months, indicating a less dynamic labor market [9] Inflation Trends - Inflation has eased from its highs in 2022 but remains elevated, with total PCE prices rising 2.7% over the 12 months ending in August, up from 2.3% in August 2024 [10] - Core PCE prices rose 2.9% last month, driven by increases in goods prices, which reflect higher tariffs rather than broader price pressures [10][11] - There is uncertainty regarding the path of inflation, with a reasonable expectation that tariff-related effects will be short-lived, leading to a one-time shift in the price level [11][12] Monetary Policy - The balance of risks has shifted, with increased downside risks to employment and upside risks to inflation, prompting a move towards a more neutral policy stance [14][15] - The target range for the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 4 to 4¼ percent, which is still considered modestly restrictive [15] - The policy approach will remain flexible, adapting to incoming data and evolving economic conditions while aiming to support maximum employment and achieve the 2% inflation goal [16][17]