Alliance Resource (ARLP) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

Core Viewpoint - Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2023 earnings on January 29, with a prior negative earnings surprise of 11.9% in the last quarter [1] Factors to Note - Operating expenses per ton sold in Appalachia are anticipated to rise by 8-10% in Q4 2023 due to ongoing developments at Mettiki and a scheduled longwall move at Tunnel Ridge, likely impacting margins [2] - Earnings may benefit from multi-year contracts with blue-chip utility companies [2] - Lower realized oil and gas commodity prices in Q4 are expected to offset increases in coal royalty revenue per ton, similar to the previous quarter [2] Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 revenues is $672.5 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 4%, while earnings per unit are estimated at $1.14, indicating a 30% decrease year-over-year [3] Quantitative Model Predictions - The model does not predict an earnings beat for ARLP, with an Earnings ESP of -10.13% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Stocks to Consider - Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) is expected to report an earnings beat with an Earnings ESP of +6.12% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with a consensus estimate of 37 cents per unit [5] - Energy Transfer (ET) is likely to report an earnings beat with an Earnings ESP of +15.39% and a Zacks Rank of 2, with earnings estimated at 29 cents per unit and sales at $23.6 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase [6] - ONEOK Inc. (OKE) is also expected to report an earnings beat with an Earnings ESP of +20.78% and a Zacks Rank of 3, with earnings estimated at $1.16 per share and sales at $5.5 billion, a 10.3% year-over-year increase [6]