A Case Study On Leverage In Cyclical Sectors: Apple Hospitality

Industry Overview - Hotel revenues have fully recovered from the pandemic, reaching record highs with the highest average daily rate (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) on record in 2023 [2] - Despite the recovery in hotel revenues, hotel REITs remain over 20% below pre-pandemic levels [2] Leverage and Cyclicality - Leverage amplifies both success and failure, acting as a multiplier during boom and bust cycles [5] - During the pandemic, leverage exacerbated the crash but should have also amplified the recovery, yet hotel REITs did not fully recover [4][5] - The cost of financial distress, triggered by leverage, led to dilutive maneuvers such as equity issuance, property sales, and preferred share conversions to avoid breaching loan covenants [6] - These dilutive actions resulted in permanent earnings dilution and hindered the recovery of FFO/share and AFFO/share for most hotel REITs [7] Apple Hospitality (APLE) Case Study - APLE stands out as an exception, fully recovering in both FFO and market price due to its low leverage entering the pandemic [8] - APLE's debt + preferred to total enterprise value was about 25% pre-pandemic, compared to 40%-60% for most hotel REITs, allowing it to avoid financial distress and dilutive capital raises [9] - APLE maintained its asset base and share count, enabling a clean recovery in AFFO/share as industry revenues rebounded [10] - APLE's RevPAR of $122.91 in 3Q23 is among the lowest in the industry, with properties spread proportionally to GDP across the U S [8] Market Mispricing and Investment Implications - The market appears to be mispricing hotel REITs, with low-leverage APLE trading at 12 3X AFFO while high-leverage Pebblebrook (PEB) trades at 15 5X AFFO [13] - High leverage in cyclical sectors like hotels increases vulnerability during downturns, making low-leverage companies like APLE more attractive [12] - APLE is identified as a clear opportunity in the sector due to its conservative balance sheet and full recovery [14]