Down 84%, Is This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock a Buy After an Earnings Pop?

Core Viewpoint - Appian's stock has experienced significant volatility, dropping 84% from its peak in early 2021, but recently saw a 12% increase following strong fourth-quarter earnings, driven by growth in cloud revenue and new AI initiatives [1][2]. Financial Performance - Appian reported a 26% increase in cloud revenue, reaching $83.1 million in the fourth quarter, contributing to an overall revenue growth of 16% to $145.3 million, surpassing estimates of $140.9 million [2]. - The company achieved an adjusted profit per share of $0.06, contrasting with the consensus estimate of a $0.24 loss and an actual loss of $0.28 in the same quarter the previous year [2]. - Operating costs were reduced while growing the business, with expectations to reach break-even for adjusted EBITDA in 2024 after reporting a $1 million EBITDA profit in the fourth quarter [2][5]. AI and Data Fabric Initiatives - Appian is focusing on low-code data technology, which allows better control over customer data without housing it, functioning as a "virtual database" [3]. - The data fabric feature has become a key component of Appian's AI strategy, promoting "private AI" that enables customers to own their data while providing tools for access and understanding [3]. - The CEO emphasized that these new features are expected to drive revenue differentiation and competitive advantage for the company [4]. Customer Engagement and Future Outlook - The fourth quarter saw a net retention rate growth of 119%, indicating existing customers increased their spending by 19% year over year [5]. - Appian's full-year guidance anticipates a 20% growth in cloud revenue and a 13% increase in total revenue, with an expected adjusted EBITDA loss of $23 million to $25 million, but management projects positive EBITDA by 2025 [5]. - An upcoming Investor Day conference in April is expected to provide updates on AI and data fabric, potentially boosting investor interest and stock performance [6].