AAR(AIR) Zacks Investment Research·2024-03-14 15:06Earnings Overview - AAR is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended February 2024, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 567 63 million, an 8 9% increase YoY [1][2] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1 12% over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' reassessment of initial estimates [2] Earnings Surprise Potential - The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for AAR is +0 40%, indicating analysts have recently become more bullish on the company's earnings prospects [5] - However, the stock carries a Zacks Rank of 4, making it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat [5][6] - Historically, AAR has beaten consensus EPS estimates in three out of the last four quarters [7] Market Impact - The upcoming earnings report, scheduled for release on March 21, 2024, could influence the stock's near-term price movement depending on whether the results exceed or fall short of expectations [1] - While an earnings beat or miss is a significant factor, other unforeseen catalysts or disappointments can also impact the stock's performance [8] Analyst Insights - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that stocks with a positive ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank (1-3) have a higher likelihood of delivering a positive earnings surprise, with a success rate of nearly 70% [4] - AAR's current combination of a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank of 4 does not strongly indicate an earnings beat, but investors should consider other factors as well [5][6][8]