We Need a Credit Event. Here's Why.

I am not a doomer.I am not a perma-bear.However, I am a realist.I initially believed that the Federal Reserve overtightened interest rates, but the problem is that credit spreads disagree. Oddly enough, they are pretty much at cycle lows. Why does this matter?Because tight credit spreads mean the bond market isn’t worried about an economic slowdown that would impact highly levered issuers, putting them at risk of default. This in turn means that tight credit spreads are inflationary.Guess what? Today’s infl ...