Should You Buy Exact Sciences (EXAS) Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Exact Sciences (EXAS) is expected to report its first-quarter 2024 results on May 8, with a consensus estimate of a loss per share of 50 cents and revenues of $624.9 million [1][2]. Earnings Surprise History - Exact Sciences has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, achieving an average earnings surprise of 51.48% [2]. Previous Quarter Performance - In Q4 2023, Exact Sciences reported a net loss of 27 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 72 cents in the previous year and better than the consensus estimate of a loss of 53 cents. This improvement was attributed to growth in the Screening and Precision Oncology segments, alongside strong adoption of Cologuard [3]. Revenue Segments - Exact Sciences reports revenues under three segments: Precision Oncology, Screening, and COVID-19 testing [4]. - The Precision Oncology segment is expected to see revenue growth driven by laboratory service revenues from Oncotype DX and therapy selection tests, with a consensus estimate of $159.3 million for Q1 2024 [4][5]. - The Screening segment is anticipated to generate revenues of $464.5 million in Q1 2024, supported by increased laboratory service revenues from Cologuard and Prevention Genetics tests [7]. Cologuard Adoption - Cologuard adoption has reached an all-time high, with 172,000 healthcare providers ordering the test, contributing positively to revenues [6]. Seasonal Trends - Management anticipates a sequential decline in screening revenues due to typical seasonal trends, as primary care utilization is lower during the holiday season, impacting the timing of Cologuard orders and completed tests [7]. COVID-19 Testing Segment - Exact Sciences has not recorded any revenues from the COVID-19 testing segment in the previous quarter, a trend expected to continue in Q1 2024 [8]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model indicates a negative Earnings ESP of -27.27% for Exact Sciences, suggesting that an earnings beat is unlikely this quarter [9].