BeigeBook_20241204

National Summary - Economic activity rose slightly in most Federal Reserve Districts, with modest or moderate growth in three regions offsetting flat or slightly declining activity in two others. Expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors [10] - Consumer spending was generally stable, with increased price sensitivity among consumers noted by many businesses. Spending on home furnishings decreased due to limited household mobility, and mortgage demand was low overall [10] - Capital spending and purchases of raw materials were flat or declining in most Districts, with sales of farm equipment being a notable headwind to overall investment activity [10] - Energy activity in the oil and gas sector was flat, while demand for electricity generation continued to grow robustly, driven by rapid expansions in data centers [10] Labor Markets - Employment levels were flat or up slightly across Districts, with subdued hiring activity and low levels of layoffs reported. Many firms expected employment to remain steady or rise slightly over the next year [11] - Wage growth softened to a modest pace across most Districts, with expectations for wage growth also softening. Job growth and wage growth for entry-level positions and skilled trades were exceptions, rising robustly [11] Prices - Prices rose at a modest pace across Federal Reserve Districts, with businesses facing greater difficulty passing costs on to customers. Input prices were rising faster than selling prices for most businesses, leading to declining profit margins [13] - Rising insurance prices were reported as significant cost pressures for many businesses, with expectations for the current pace of price growth to persist [13] Highlights by Federal Reserve District - Boston: Economic activity was down slightly, with steady employment and modest wage increases. Consumer spending on restaurants decreased, and commercial real estate activity was flat [14] - New York: Regional economic activity expanded slightly, led by strong growth in manufacturing. Employment grew slightly, and wage growth remained moderate [15] - Philadelphia: Business activity edged up, with modest growth in manufacturing and a flat consumer spending environment. Inflation expectations rose due to potential tariffs [16] - Cleveland: Business activity grew modestly, with robust demand for business services and slight employment growth. Prices and wages increased modestly [17] - Richmond: The regional economy grew slightly, with little change in employment levels and moderate wage growth. Price levels were largely unchanged [19] - Atlanta: Economic activity grew, with steady employment and slow wage growth. Retail sales improved slightly, while tourism declined modestly [20] - Chicago: Economic activity increased slightly, with modest rises in consumer and business spending. Prices and wages rose moderately [21] - St. Louis: Economic activity slightly increased, with moderate price increases and slight declines in consumer spending across income distributions [22] - Minneapolis: Economic activity increased slightly, with moderate wage growth and flat consumer spending [23] - Kansas City: Economic growth was modest, with strong expectations for demand growth and plans to increase hiring and capital expenditures [24] - Dallas: Economic activity rose moderately, with growth in nonfinancial services and improved outlooks for demand expectations [25] - San Francisco: Economic activity was stable, with generally unchanged employment levels and slight increases in wages and prices [26] Federal Reserve Bank of Boston - Economic activity was down slightly, with steady employment and modest wage increases. Consumer spending was restrained by warm weather affecting seasonal goods purchases [27] - Manufacturing sales increased modestly, driven by strong AI-related demand, while commercial real estate activity was flat [27] - The outlook was neutral on average, with mixed sentiments and elevated uncertainty concerning the economy [27] Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Economic activity expanded slightly, led by strong growth in manufacturing. Employment grew slightly, and wages continued to rise moderately [39] - The housing market remained solid, with a pickup in sales in New York City, while commercial real estate markets steadied after a period of weakness [39] Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia - Business activity edged up, with modest growth in manufacturing and steady consumer spending. Inflation expectations rose due to potential tariffs [58] - Employment appeared to rise modestly, with a slight increase in the average workweek reported [59] Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland - Business activity grew modestly, with robust demand for business services and slight employment growth. Prices and wages increased modestly [81] - Nonresidential construction and real estate activity increased modestly, with expectations for strong growth in demand in the coming months [91] Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond - Economic activity expanded slightly, with consumer spending on retail and tourism flat to up slightly. Employment was little changed, while wages continued to rise moderately [96] - Price levels were largely unchanged, with moderate annual price growth reported in the service sector [98]