Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in net profit in Q1 2025, but long-term value remains intact, with projected net profits increasing significantly from 2025 to 2027 [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while net profit was 200 million yuan, a decrease of 30% year-on-year [1]. - Urea revenue was 1.54 billion yuan with a sales volume of 965,000 tons, maintaining year-on-year levels, but the price decreased by 23% to 1,592 yuan/ton, leading to a gross margin drop of 13 percentage points to 18% [2]. - Compound fertilizer revenue reached 1.56 billion yuan with a sales volume of 600,000 tons, a 14% increase year-on-year, but the price fell by 4% to 2,599 yuan/ton, maintaining a gross margin of 14% [2]. - Methanol revenue was 800 million yuan with a sales volume of 354,000 tons, a 22% increase year-on-year, with the price rising by 4% to 2,270 yuan/ton and a gross margin increase of 4 percentage points to 10% [2]. - Melamine revenue was 160 million yuan with a sales volume of 32,000 tons, a 7% decrease year-on-year, with the price down by 18% to 5,106 yuan/ton and a gross margin drop of 21 percentage points to 22% [2]. - DMF revenue was 290 million yuan with a sales volume of 78,000 tons, a 9% increase year-on-year, with the price decreasing by 9% to 3,668 yuan/ton and a gross margin increase of 4 percentage points to 16% [2]. Industry Outlook - The demand for urea in China is projected to be 69 million tons in 2025, with agricultural demand at 43 million tons (3% growth) and industrial demand at 22 million tons (5% growth), while export volume is expected to reach 4 million tons, a significant increase of 1,438% [3]. - Changes in export policy from comprehensive restrictions to structured regulation are anticipated to alleviate domestic urea supply surplus, with total export quotas not exceeding 4.25 million tons in 2023 and a defined export window from May to September [3]. Investment Recommendation - The company maintains a target price of 6.5 HKD, representing a 49% upside potential based on a projected P/E ratio of 7.4 times for 2025, with expected net profits of 1 billion, 1.76 billion, and 2.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1][3].

Core Viewpoint - Leap Motor has reported its best-ever first-quarter performance, with significant growth in sales and revenue, indicating strong market demand and effective operational strategies [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Leap Motor achieved a sales volume of 87,600 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 162% [4]. - Revenue for the same period exceeded 10 billion RMB, reaching 10.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 187.1% [2][4]. - The gross margin reached a historical high of 14.9%, compared to -1.4% in Q1 2024 and 13.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting improvements in scale effects, cost management, and product mix optimization [4][5]. Market Expansion - Leap Motor has expanded its presence to 23 international markets, including Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and South America, with over 550 sales and service outlets [2][7]. - The company aims to accelerate its global expansion, with plans to introduce three new models (B10, B01, B05) in 2025 to cater to diverse global customer needs [3][7]. Product Performance - The C series has been a standout performer, accounting for 77.5% of total sales in Q1 2025, with 67,800 units delivered [5]. - The B10 model, launched in April 2025, has already seen over 10,000 units delivered by the announcement date [5]. Strategic Partnerships and Production - Leap Motor is collaborating with Stellantis Group to localize production in Malaysia, with plans to start producing the C10 model by the end of 2025 and to establish manufacturing in Europe by 2026 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on maintaining a balance between market penetration and profitability, with an emphasis on long-term growth rather than immediate high profits [8]. Sales and Distribution Strategy - The company aims to exceed 1,000 sales outlets by the end of 2025, having nearly 800 currently, and is implementing a pixel model and online systems to enhance sales capabilities [9]. - Leap Motor prioritizes dealer profitability in its channel management strategy, ensuring a competitive edge in the industry [9].

Group 1 - Zijin Mining (02899) has shown strong performance recently, with a stock price increase of 7.58% to HKD 18.52, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The stock has broken through the Bollinger Bands upper limit at HKD 17.97, reaching an intraday high of HKD 18.54, suggesting a bullish momentum [1] - Technical indicators are signaling a strong buy, with 19 buy signals, 7 neutral signals, and 2 sell signals, indicating a robust bullish sentiment [3] Group 2 - Current stock price is hovering around HKD 18.24, with resistance levels at HKD 18.6 and HKD 19.1, while support levels are at HKD 17.5 and HKD 17.3 [4] - If trading volume maintains around HKD 788 million, the probability of a short-term price increase is estimated at 53% [4] - Recent performance of warrants linked to the stock has shown significant gains, with HSBC and UBS call warrants rising by 34% and 33% respectively, reflecting the high leverage potential of these products [6] Group 3 - Investors are advised to consider call warrants with a strike price of HKD 19.01, which have a leverage of approximately 5.1 times, suitable for capturing upward movements after breaking resistance [9] - For those concerned about potential technical pullbacks, UBS bear warrants with a redemption price of HKD 21 provide a safety margin, with a leverage of 5.5 times [9] - The recent rebound in gold prices and positive earnings expectations have benefited Zijin Mining, although overbought signals are emerging, indicating a possible price correction before further gains [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a revitalization with strong performance in antibiotic production and innovative drug development, particularly in the insulin and animal health sectors [1][2][3][4]. Antibiotic and Insulin Business - The company has a leading position in the antibiotic market, focusing on a full industrial chain including key products like 6-APA and amoxicillin, with a stable long-term outlook despite short-term price fluctuations [1]. - The company successfully participated in the national procurement of insulin, achieving A-class bids for all six products, which is expected to enhance market share as the demand for third-generation insulin products increases [1][2]. - The antibiotic procurement risks have been largely mitigated, with most major products already completed in the procurement process [1]. Innovative Drug Development - UBT251, a GLP-1/GIP/GCG tri-receptor agonist, has shown promising results in Phase I clinical trials, leading to a significant partnership with Novo Nordisk, including an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion [1][2]. - The company is also advancing other innovative treatments, including a small molecule RASP inhibitor for dry eye syndrome and a JAK1 inhibitor for atopic dermatitis, both in clinical trials [1]. Financial Performance and Projections - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 137.6 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1%, driven by a 14.8% increase in intermediate revenue [2][3]. - The company anticipates revenue fluctuations in the coming years, projecting revenues of 144.0 billion, 130.0 billion, and 133.9 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding profit changes [4]. - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 38.3%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [3]. Valuation and Market Outlook - The target price for the company's stock is set at 21.9 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 62.2% from the current price, based on a DCF model with a WACC of 12% [2][4]. - The company’s valuation includes 142 billion HKD for its intermediate and raw material business, and 223 billion HKD for its formulation business, alongside 34 billion HKD in net cash [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Lianbang Pharmaceutical, has shown significant progress in its drug development, particularly in weight loss and insulin products, while maintaining a stable growth outlook in its antibiotic and animal health segments [1][2][3] Group 1: Weight Loss Drug Development - UBT251 has achieved authorization, and the clinical trial results for UBT251 in China show a 15.1% average weight loss from baseline at the highest dose after 12 weeks, compared to a 1.5% increase in the placebo group [1] - The safety profile of UBT251 is similar to other gut incretin products, with the most common adverse events being gastrointestinal reactions, mostly mild to moderate [1] - The company has granted overseas rights for UBT251 to Novo Nordisk, receiving an upfront payment of $200 million and potential milestone payments of up to $1.8 billion, along with tiered sales royalties based on annual net sales in overseas regions [1] Group 2: Insulin Business Outlook - The company has successfully won bids in all six procurement groups for insulin, with all selected products classified as Class A, indicating a stable growth outlook for its insulin business [2] - The company’s self-production costs are controllable, which supports the expectation of stable growth in the insulin segment [2] Group 3: Animal Health and Antibiotics - The company anticipates that 19 animal health formulations will be launched by 2025, with over 10 formulations expected to be approved annually from 2026 to 2028, indicating a strong pipeline and growth potential in the animal health market [2] - The company has established itself as a leader in the penicillin industry, with a market share of around 50% in both penicillin industrial salt and 6-APA, benefiting from vertical integration and process iteration [2] - The antibiotic business is expected to remain stable, despite some anticipated fluctuations in demand starting in Q4 2024, due to the execution of centralized procurement for piperacillin-tazobactam sodium [2] Group 4: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company’s projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is estimated at 145.24 billion, 139.87 billion, and 145.80 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.56%, -3.70%, and 4.23% respectively [2] - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period is 29.07 billion, 25.57 billion, and 27.62 billion yuan [2] - The company is valued using a comparable company valuation method, with a target market capitalization of 34.102 billion HKD and a target price of 18.77 HKD per share, reflecting a buy rating [3]

机构：中金公司 研究员：姚泽宇/李亚达/毛晴晴 奇富科技1Q25 业绩超出我们此前预期 奇富科技（原360 数科）1Q25 营收同比+13%/环比+5%至46.9 亿元，非通用准则净利润同比+60%/环 比-2%至19.3 亿元，超过我们此前预期，主要得益于放款量略高于我们预期、放款结构与资金成本进一 步优化。 发展趋势 获客渠道优化、嵌入式金融贡献提升。公司1Q25 获客渠道实现优化、新增7 家嵌入式金融合作渠道， 1Q25 放款量同比+16%/环比-1%至889 亿元，其中科技解决型占比~49%，放款量环比增速略有下降或主 因季节性因素。往前看，我们预计其2025 年放款量同比+5%-10%、维持此前预测。 资产质量稳定可控、净服务费率保持在较高水平。公司1Q25 营收同比+13%/环比+5%至46.9 亿元，环 比增速快于放款量主因放款结构优化以及用户提前还款意愿有所降低。公司1Q25 非通用准则净利润同 比+60%/环比-2%至19.3 亿元，净服务费率~5.6%（vs. 4Q24 5.96%），我们认为公司净服务费率保持在 较高水平主因平均资金成本下降（环比-30bp、得益于1Q25 ABS 发行量 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 46.967 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 0.451 billion yuan, up 89.1% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit (non-IFRS) was 0.75 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase year-on-year [1] Integrated Supply Chain Performance - Integrated supply chain revenue was 23.201 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 13.2% [1] - Revenue from JD Group contributed 14.699 billion yuan, an increase of 14.1% year-on-year [1] - External integrated supply chain business revenue was 8.510 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year, with a customer base of 63,100, growing by 13.1% [1] Express and Freight Business - Revenue from other clients (express and freight) was 23.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, slightly below the overall revenue growth [2] - Excluding Debon Holdings, express and freight revenue (including Kuaixue Express) was 13.360 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [2] - Anticipation for Q2 2025 is positive due to the support from JD's 618 shopping festival and brand advantages [1] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was 3.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [2] - Operating costs reached 43.580 billion yuan, up 11.8% year-on-year, driven by increased employee compensation and outsourcing costs [2] - The main business gross margin was 7.2%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 202.418 billion, 217.649 billion, and 233.101 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.7%, 7.5%, and 7.1% respectively [2] - Net profit projections for the same period are 6.614 billion, 7.117 billion, and 7.819 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.7%, 7.6%, and 9.9% respectively [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on the expected growth in integrated supply chain and steady performance in express and freight business [2]

SSGJ-707 临床效果获国际认可，财务回报助力公司研发体系升级。SSGJ-707 是三生制药基于CLF2 专 利平台开发的靶向PD-1/VEGF 双特异性抗体，可同时抑制PD-1 和VEGF 双靶点。产品潜力大：1）II 期 临床阶段性分析数据显示，SSGJ-707 在NSCLC 患者的治疗上获得了优异的ORR 和DCR，无论单药还 是与化疗联用，均展示出显著的抗肿瘤活性和良好的安全性，具有best-in-class 的潜力。2）今年4 月获 CDE 突破性治疗药物认定，适应症为一线治疗PD-L1 表达阳性的局部晚期或转移性非小细胞肺癌。此 前，SSGJ-707 已获得FDA 的IND 批准。3）SSGJ-707 用于治疗结直肠癌、妇科肿瘤等领域的临床研究 也在推进中。此次合作证明SSGJ-707优异的临床效果已获得国际顶尖认可，同时验证了公司自主创新 研发体系的国际竞争力，显著提升了公司在肿瘤治疗领域的全球话语权，有力地推进了公司的国际化步 伐。此外，此次合作也将为三生制药带来强劲的财务回报，助力公司研发体系升级，推动公司更好地融 入全球生物医药产业价值链。 机构：国盛证券 研究员：张金洋/胡偌碧/张玉 ...

特比澳、蔓迪等核心产品高速增长，有望支撑公司未来主业稳健增长。特比澳24 年销售50.6 亿元，同 比保持20.4%高增长，市占率34.3%，且24 年医保谈判成功零降价续约并新增儿童ITP 适应症，未来有 望持续增长。促红素双品牌24 年销售10.2亿元，同比+8.3%，市占率42%稳居第一。蔓迪生发24 年销售 13.4 亿元，同比+18.9%，尤其24H2 蔓迪销售恢复高增长，后续通过不断开发新系列品种，品牌销售有 望持续增长。此外，公司不断与众多药企达成创新合作，例如HER3/EGFR 双抗ADC、HER2 ADC、克 立福替尼、口服紫杉醇、GLP1 等，有望提供业绩增量。 盈利预测与评级：考虑12.5 亿美金首付款于25 年确认，预计公司归母净利润分别为97.88/29.88/34.72 亿 元，同比增速分别为368.2%/-69.5%/16.2%，当前股价对应PE 分别为4/14/12 倍。25 年公司经调整净利 润有望达23 亿元，参考瀚森制药、石药集团、康哲药业、中国生物制药等可比公司，给予10 倍PE，主 业合理估值约230 亿元。本次BD 交易金额超预期，我们上调707 双抗海外峰值至50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and a reduction in net loss for Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in financial performance and operational efficiency [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.02 billion, a year-on-year increase of 187.1% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -130 million, a substantial improvement from -1.01 billion in the same period of 2024 [1]. - The gross margin reached a historical high of 14.9% in Q1 2025, compared to -1.4% in Q1 2024 and 13.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting a 1.6 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales and Delivery - The company reported a significant increase in vehicle deliveries, with a total of 87,552 units delivered in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 162.1% [2]. - The C series models accounted for 67,812 units delivered, making up 77.5% of total sales, which is an increase of 5.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. - The newly launched B platform model, B10, has seen over 10,000 units delivered since its launch on April 10, 2025, indicating strong market demand [2]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 407 million, 1.457 billion, and 3.131 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 188.20, 52.52, and 24.44 [2].