高盛：推动欧洲电力可再生能源从替代到满足不断的电力需求的关键。

Investment Rating - The report rates EDPR, RWE, and Orsted as "Buy" due to their significant exposure to the US market and expected higher returns from renewable energy projects [6][48][66]. Core Insights - Renewables are transitioning from being a substitute for thermal plants to becoming essential assets to meet rising electricity demand in both the US and Europe [1][2]. - The tightening supply/demand balance for renewables is expected to lead to higher returns, with project IRRs currently estimated at 8-10% for US developers [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant increase in power demand expectations driven by factors such as datacenters and electrification, which is anticipated to boost renewable energy returns [7][24]. Summary by Sections Renewables and Power Demand - Over the past 15 years, power demand in Europe has declined by approximately 10%, while the US demand has remained broadly flat [2][8]. - Renewables have primarily replaced fossil fuel plants during this period, but the current inflection in power demand is expected to change this dynamic [1][11]. Supply/Demand Balance and Returns - The combination of rising demand expectations and recent capex reductions by major renewable developers is tightening the supply/demand balance, leading to improved returns [3][20]. - The report anticipates that the US will see a more immediate impact from these trends, with Europe expected to follow suit within 1-2 years [7][31]. Company-Specific Insights - EDPR's business is estimated to have around 55% exposure to the US, while RWE and Orsted have approximately 25-30% and 25% exposure, respectively [6][48]. - The report slightly upgrades return assumptions for these companies and raises EPS estimates and price targets, reflecting the positive outlook for US renewable energy projects [6][48][66]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the reserve margin in Europe may turn negative by 2030 due to rising power demand and a slowdown in renewable energy additions, which could lead to higher PPA prices [31][41]. - The expected cumulative growth in power consumption in Europe is projected to be around 40% over the next decade, driven by the expansion of datacenters and electrification [34][35].