每周投资策略

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in European stocks due to political turmoil, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like the US dollar and a rebound in gold prices [6][13] - The US inflation is cooling down, and oil prices are rebounding as Russia commits to production cuts [6][8] Group 2: UK Market Focus - The UK economy is expected to weaken, with the Bank of England likely to initiate rate cuts in August or September [41][42] - The UK inflation rate for May was higher than expected, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to 2.3% year-on-year, but still above market consensus [18][41] - The report notes that the UK labor market is showing signs of weakness, with wage growth trends remaining uncertain [45][41] Group 3: Australian Market Focus - The Australian economy is under pressure from high real interest rates, which are expected to suppress consumer spending until rate cuts begin [54][57] - The report anticipates that the Australian central bank may implement rate cuts before the end of the year, with inflation rates remaining elevated [28][54] - Employment growth is expected to slow down in the coming quarters, although the unemployment rate remains low [32][57] Group 4: Malaysian Market Focus - The report predicts that Malaysia's policy interest rate will remain unchanged in 2024, with the central bank maintaining its stance on monetary policy [64][36] - Malaysia's trade data for May is expected to show a significant slowdown in export growth, dropping from 9.1% in April to 1.1% [37][36] - The report indicates that Malaysia's energy trade balance has shifted to a deficit since 2022, with net energy trade balance declining significantly [62][64]