商业银行2023年及2024年一季度业绩点评：盈利承压延续，资产质量稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the commercial banking sector, with a focus on credit quality and structural adjustments in lending practices [2][5][7]. Core Insights - The commercial banking sector is experiencing a slowdown in credit growth due to weak demand, with a shift towards policy-driven lending in emerging sectors [2][5][8]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed, dropping to 1.5% in Q1 2024, with ongoing pressure on interest income [20][11]. - The asset quality of commercial banks remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.59% as of Q1 2024, indicating effective risk management despite challenges in certain sectors [25][31][21]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Structure - In 2023, credit demand was weak, leading to a slowdown in lending growth, characterized by a strong focus on corporate loans and a decline in retail lending [2][5]. - The credit structure is shifting towards emerging industries such as green energy and manufacturing, with significant growth in loans to these sectors [5][7]. Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin has continued to decline, with a drop from 1.7% in 2023 to 1.5% in Q1 2024, driven by lower interest income and increased competition for deposits [20][11]. - Non-interest income has become a more significant part of overall revenue, accounting for 25.6% of total income in Q1 2024 [11][14]. Asset Quality - The overall asset quality of commercial banks is stable, with a slight increase in the NPL balance to CNY 3.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.14% [21][25]. - The NPL ratio for major banks has improved slightly, while rural commercial banks face more significant challenges due to higher credit risk exposure [27][32]. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks remained stable at 15.1% by the end of 2023, with variations across different types of banks [44][46]. - The issuance of subordinated debt and perpetual bonds is expected to increase as banks seek to bolster their capital positions amid ongoing pressures [49][51].