中银证券中银晨会聚焦

Core Insights - The report highlights a weak overall performance in May economic data, with industrial value-added growth slowing down primarily due to midstream industry drag [16][18] - Fixed asset investment growth is below expectations, with manufacturing investment maintaining steady growth while infrastructure investment is declining [16][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand for stabilizing growth in the second half of the year [19] Economic Data Summary - In May, industrial value-added grew by 5.6% year-on-year, with mining, manufacturing, and public utilities showing cumulative growth rates of 2.0%, 6.7%, and 6.2% respectively [16] - Retail sales in May increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales growing by 4.7% [16] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May was 4.0%, with private investment growth at 0.1% and manufacturing investment at 9.6% [17] Real Estate Sector Insights - Real estate investment funding sources have shown slight improvement, with sales area and sales revenue both declining year-on-year by 20.3% and 27.9% respectively [17] - The report notes a 10.6% decline in residential investment growth and a 24.2% drop in new construction area for January to May [17] Policy Implications - The report suggests that future growth stabilization will rely heavily on domestic demand expansion, with potential policy measures including easing sales restrictions in real estate and promoting consumption upgrades [19] - It also indicates that infrastructure investment may receive support from increased government bond issuance [16][19]