房地产行业2024年5月70个大中城市房价数据点评：70城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房房价下行压力较大

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [14] Core Viewpoints - In May 2024, the average price of new homes in 70 major cities decreased by 0.7% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0%, marking the largest monthly decline since data collection began in 2011 [1][5] - The decline in new home prices has continued for 12 consecutive months, and second-hand home prices have decreased for 13 months in a row, indicating a prolonged downward trend that has surpassed the previous cycle in 2014 [1][6] - Among the 70 cities, 68 experienced a month-on-month decline in new home prices, with an average drop of 0.75%, while all second-hand home prices fell, a situation that has only occurred twice in history [1][6] Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In May, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, with Beijing down 1.1% and Guangzhou down 1.4%. Only Shanghai saw a price increase of 0.6% [1][5] - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.2%, with all four major cities reporting declines [1][6] Second-Hand Home Prices - The second-hand home price drop in May was the largest monthly decline recorded since 2011, with an average decrease of 1.0% across all cities [1][6] - In second-tier cities, new home prices fell by 0.7%, while second-hand prices dropped by 1.0%, both marking significant declines [1][6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: 1. Real estate companies with no liquidity risk and solid fundamentals, such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments [1] 2. Companies expected to improve significantly post-policy easing, including China City Construction and Vanke [1] 3. Real estate brokerage firms benefiting from increased second-hand home transaction volumes, such as Beike and I Love My Home [1]