5月进出口月报点评：出口修复动力到底来自哪里？

Trade Performance Insights - In the first five months of 2024, the contribution of "Belt and Road" countries to China's export growth was significant, achieving a positive contribution of 0.89 percentage points[8] - The main contributors to this positive impact were mineral products (0.43 percentage points), machinery and electrical products (2.75 percentage points), chemical products (1.09 percentage points), and automotive equipment (0.37 percentage points)[8] - The contribution of exports to the EU and the US remained weak, with machinery and non-ferrous metal products showing negative contributions of -3.02 and -0.02 percentage points to the US, and -4.70 and -0.16 percentage points to the EU respectively[15][18] Market Trends - The overall export growth rate for May 2024 was 7.6%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from April, although the manufacturing new export orders index fell below the threshold, indicating fragile external demand recovery[19] - The "Belt and Road" countries are identified as a crucial incremental source of external demand, contrasting with the stagnant demand from traditional partners like the EU and the US[19] - The contribution of "Belt and Road" countries to the total export growth rate was 2.88 percentage points, highlighting their role as a vital growth driver in the current economic landscape[16] Future Outlook - The report suggests a cautious optimism regarding external demand recovery in the third quarter, as traditional trade partners still show signs of demand weakness[19] - The potential for increased support for domestic electric vehicle exports from Russia and "Belt and Road" countries is noted, especially in light of rising import tariffs on electric vehicles in certain regions[5]