高盛：选举后的公平——好的、坏的和不确定的

Investment Rating - The report maintains a constructive outlook on Indian equities with an overweight allocation within the Asia region, expecting the NIFTY index to reach 26,000 by June next year, driven by mid-teens earnings growth and a revival in foreign flows post-elections [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the differing political outcomes in key emerging markets (EM) following recent elections, leading to a knee-jerk selloff in equities. However, it emphasizes the potential for recovery in India due to policy continuity and strong growth fundamentals [2][5]. - In Mexico, the report notes a significant political risk premium affecting market performance, with a preference for stocks that benefit from a weaker peso amid ongoing political uncertainty [5][10]. - South Africa's market is under pressure due to coalition government uncertainties, but there is potential for relief if policy continuity is maintained and unfavorable election outcomes are avoided [10][11]. Summary by Market India - The NDA government has assumed power for a third term with a reduced majority, leading to initial market volatility but a subsequent recovery, closing 3% higher last week. The report expects macro-economic stability and strong growth fundamentals to persist, maintaining a positive outlook on Indian equities [2][5]. - Earnings growth is projected to be in the mid-teens, with expectations of foreign inflows returning post-elections, supporting the bullish sentiment on the NIFTY index [2][5]. Mexico - Following the elections, the Morena coalition secured a large majority, leading to significant pressure on Mexican assets. The report suggests that the market is unlikely to perform strongly in the near term due to high political uncertainty and investor positioning [5][10]. - The report recommends focusing on sectors that benefit from a weaker peso, as these stocks may outperform in the coming months if currency volatility persists [5][10]. South Africa - The ANC's loss of parliamentary majority has led to coalition uncertainties, keeping the market under pressure. However, the report indicates that if a government of national unity is formed, it could lead to a favorable market response [10][11]. - The report anticipates that domestic sectors may catch up with local rate rallies if left-tail risks are avoided, suggesting a potential recovery in South African equities [10][11].