5月外汇市场分析报告：人民币贬值压力缓解，外汇供求关系改善

Foreign Exchange Market Trends - The bank's foreign-related receipts and payments deficit decreased from $38.2 billion in the previous month to $300 million in May[1] - The RMB-related receipts and payments deficit decreased from $34.6 billion to $11.3 billion, contributing 61% to the overall deficit reduction[1] - Foreign currency-related receipts and payments shifted from a $3.6 billion deficit to a $11.1 billion surplus, contributing 39% to the deficit reduction[1] RMB Exchange Rate and Market Behavior - The RMB spot exchange rate appreciated by 0.1% month-on-month in May, with the average daily trading volume reaching $36.3 billion, the highest since September 2023[3] - The settlement rate for foreign exchange receipts rose by 3.9 percentage points to 53.2%, while the purchase rate for foreign exchange payments fell by 1.6 percentage points to 64.4%[3] Cross-Border Capital Flows - The goods trade surplus increased from $24.5 billion to $43.2 billion, contributing 49% to the reduction in the bank's foreign-related receipts and payments deficit[31] - Securities investment surplus increased from $2.4 billion to $15.1 billion, contributing 33% to the deficit reduction[31] - Direct investment deficit decreased from $29.5 billion to $18 billion, contributing 30% to the deficit reduction[31] Foreign Institutional Investment - Foreign institutions increased their holdings of RMB bonds by $172.4 billion in May, the highest since February, with interbank certificates of deposit being the main contributor at $88 billion[9] - Policy bank bonds and treasury bonds also saw significant increases in holdings, with $51.3 billion and $25.3 billion respectively[9] Market Sentiment and Policy Impact - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased, leading to a 1.6% drop in the US dollar index, which alleviated RMB depreciation pressure[12] - The RMB exchange rate index ended its four-month upward trend, with CFETS, BIS, and SDR indices falling by 0.6%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively[12]