高盛：石油分析师好的采掘时光德克萨斯柏林盆地放缓但仍强劲

Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust growth outlook for the Permian Basin, with production growth expected to slow down but remain strong, suggesting a positive investment sentiment towards the sector [2][13][22]. Core Insights - US oil production exceeded expectations in the previous year, with the Permian Basin accounting for 60% of this growth. However, the rig count has recently declined, raising concerns about future supply [7][8]. - Production growth in the Permian is projected to decrease from 520 kb/d in 2023 to 270 kb/d by 2026, primarily due to geological constraints and a declining rig count [2][13]. - Despite the slowdown, efficiency gains and a favorable WTI price forecast above breakeven levels are expected to sustain robust production levels [3][20]. Summary by Sections Production Growth Forecast - The report forecasts that annual average production growth in the Permian will slow from 520 kb/d in 2023 to 340 kb/d in 2024 and further to 270 kb/d in 2026, driven by geological constraints and a stable rig count [2][13][22]. - The geological quality of the Permian Basin is deteriorating, limiting the potential for new well productivity improvements [15][18]. Rig Count and Efficiency - The Permian rig count has decreased by nearly 15% from its peak in April of the previous year and is expected to remain around 300 by the end of 2026 [15][18]. - Efficiency improvements in drilling and completion are anticipated to enhance the production from declining wells, with a projected 5% growth rate in declining wells production over the next three years [18][20]. Price Sensitivity and Breakeven Analysis - The WTI price forecast for 2024/2025 is set at $79/76 per barrel, which is above the estimated breakeven price of $74/bbl for the Permian, indicating a favorable economic environment for producers [20][21]. - A 10% decline in WTI prices is estimated to result in a modest 1.3% drop in Permian production, but a more significant impact if prices fall below $50/bbl [20][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The report suggests that while Permian production growth will slow, it will still contribute significantly to US crude supply, driving 60% of non-OPEC production growth [24][25]. - The balance of robust growth in the short term and limited upside in the long term is expected to support crude price stability [25].