HDCM(SZ:000567) Tai Ping Yang·2024-06-20 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 880 million yuan, up 25.68% year-on-year [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 16.57%, an increase of 2.35 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 345 million yuan, a 13.16% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 233 million yuan, reflecting a 21.49% growth [4]. - The significant profit growth is primarily driven by the company's institutional distressed asset management business, which generated 1.11 billion yuan in income from asset disposals, accounting for 90.43% of total revenue [4]. - The company has a diversified portfolio in distressed assets, including energy, listed companies, special opportunities, and commercial real estate, with total balances of 4.77 billion yuan, 627 million yuan, 1.87 billion yuan, and 1.10 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The company has established a strong position in the individual loan distressed asset management sector, with a market share among the top players in the industry [4]. - The dividend payout ratio remains high, with a proposed cash dividend of 570 million yuan for the reporting period, representing a 65% payout ratio [4]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.43 billion yuan, 1.72 billion yuan, and 2.14 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.25%, 20.65%, and 24.25% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.08 billion yuan, 1.34 billion yuan, and 1.69 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 22.50%, 24.10%, and 26.57% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.55 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.87 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.26, 9.07, and 7.17 [4].